The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050
Joel Kotkin

Visionary social thinker Joel Kotkin looks ahead to America in 2050, revealing how the addition of one hundred million Americans by midcentury will transform how we all live, work, and prosper.

In stark contrast to the rest of the world's advanced nations, the United States is growing at a record rate and, according to census projections, will be home to four hundred million Americans by 2050. This projected rise in population is the strongest indicator of our long-term economic strength, Joel Kotkin believes, and will make us more diverse and more competitive than any nation on earth.

Drawing on prodigious research, firsthand reportage, and historical analysis, The Next Hundred Million reveals how this unprecedented growth will take physical shape and change the face of America. The majority of the additional hundred million Americans will find their homes in suburbia, though the suburbs of tomorrow will not resemble the Levittowns of the 1950s or the sprawling exurbs of the late twentieth century. The suburbs of the twenty-first century will be less reliant on major cities for jobs and other amenities and, as a result, more energy efficient. Suburbs will also be the melting pots of the future as more and more immigrants opt for dispersed living over crowded inner cities and the majority in the United States becomes nonwhite by 2050.

In coming decades, urbanites will flock in far greater numbers to affordable, vast, and autoreliant metropolitan areas-such as Houston, Phoenix, and Las Vegas-than to glamorous but expensive industrial cities, such as New York and Chicago. Kotkin also foresees that the twenty-first century will be marked by a resurgence of the American heartland, far less isolated in the digital era and a crucial source of renewable fuels and real estate for a growing population. But in both big cities and small towns across the country, we will see what Kotkin calls "the new localism"-a greater emphasis on family ties and local community, enabled by online networks and the increasing numbers of Americans working from home.

The Next Hundred Million provides a vivid snapshot of America in 2050 by focusing not on power brokers, policy disputes, or abstract trends, but rather on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society-families, towns, neighborhoods, industries. It is upon the success or failure of these communities, Kotkin argues, that the American future rests.

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The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050

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33 reviews from Economics blogs:

Economics 31 Aug 10:
... It is in this model, not in imitating foreign ones, that American business can find the path to greater success in the globalized, dispersed economy of the 21st century. This article originally appeared at Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by SEIU International ...
Economics 24 Aug 10:
... If the country does these things then Americans will someday look back at their current Sinophobia as a delusion dressed up as irresistible conventional wisdom. This article originally appeared at Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo: Steve Webel ...
Economics 16 Aug 10:
... When it comes to exporting our notions to the rest of the globe, we must be aware of our own susceptibility to fashionable theories in urban design -- because while the West may be able to live with its mistakes, the developing world doesn't enjoy that luxury. This article originally appeared at Foreign Policy Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo: Mugley ...
Economics 08 Aug 10:
... Thanks to the Economic Research and Forecasting Project at California Lutheran University for providing analysis and charts. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo: Stuck in Customs ...
Economics 03 Aug 10:
... ' But how the 49th state fares may determine whether the rest of America can build a more sustainable and prosperous economy in the decades ahead. This article originally appeared at Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo: Unhindered by Talent ...
Economics 27 Jul 10:
... Historical patterns may be repeating themselves, but they could produce a very different final result. This article originally appeared at Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo: Marxchivist ...
Economics 15 Jul 10:
... Business owners across the spectrum are forced to embrace the “party of no” because Obama and the Democrats have given them so little to say “yes” to. This article originally appeared in The Daily Beast. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Official White House Photo ...
Economics 14 Jul 10:
... Unless they start addressing class issues in effective ways, they may lose not just their historical base but the political future. This article originally appeared in Politico. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Official White House Photo by Pete Souza ...
Economics 26 Jun 10:
... The key now is summoning national and political will to exploit our advantages, assets that America sadly now appears to have in short supply. This article originally appeared in TheDailyBeast. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by rjason13 ...
Economics 22 Jun 10:
... Given the mess the boomers have left them, that may prove a difference worth celebrating. This article originally appeared in Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by rjason13 ...
Economics 16 Jun 10:
... And that would bode well for Britain itself, allowing the country to play to fundamental strengths that derive from its unique historical legacy. This article originally appeared in The Daily Beast. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by Public Citizen ...
Economics 15 Jun 10:
... Until that happens, our putative city of the future will exist more as dreamscape than reality. This article originally appeared in Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by k. landerholm ...
Economics 09 Jun 10:
... But in the nation's oft-ignored interior, the development of new fuels offers the prospect of a previously unimagined prosperity. This article originally appeared in Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by k. landerholm ...
Economics 01 Jun 10:
... S. unique and different from its mother country. This article originally appeared in Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by MonkeyBoy69 ...
Economics 25 May 10:
... But in the long run, environmentalism will not remain politically 'sustainable' if it fails to balance a green future with the economic aspirations of current and future generations. This article originally appeared in Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by just. Luc ...
Economics 21 May 10:
... They will confirm America's unique status as the world's one great global civilization. This article originally appeared in Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by telwink ...
Economics 20 May 10:
... This, more than anything, promises to give Houstonites the future. This article originally appeared in Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by telwink ...
Economics 15 May 10:
... It might not be too bad, as long as the weather holds up. This article originally appeared in The Daily Beast. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by alibaba0 ...
Economics 11 May 10:
... While there are obviously other policies or initiatives that high performing states share there are some commonalities: building on momentum; delivering adequate funding for initiatives; developing strong relationships and communication strategies; enterprise-friendly tax and regulation systems; and vigorous collaboration between business, government, and education institutions. Read the full report. Praxis Strategy Group is an economic development, analysis, and strategic planning firm. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and author of The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 ...
Economics 10 May 10:
... We need to look at these local sources—what Thomas Jefferson called “our little Republics”—to lead the jobs imperative. It is an imperative upon which depends the future success of our entire nation. Read the full report. Praxis Strategy Group is an economic development, analysis, and strategic planning firm. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and author of The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 ...
Economics 02 May 10:
... Here, our nation of 400 million souls will find its fundamental sustenance and its best hope for the brightest future. This article originally appeared in GOVERNING Magazine. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by slynkycat ...
Economics 27 Apr 10:
... ' More than anything, it will take rolling back some of the draconian regulations--particularly around climate-change legislation--that force companies, and jobs, to go to places that, while not as intrinsically attractive, are friendlier to job-creating businesses. This article originally appeared at Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo: JSFauxtaugraphy ...
Economics 20 Apr 10:
... With the resumption growth, hopefully, our economy next year will begin resembling the more capitalist, competitive one we have enjoyed in the past. This article originally appeared at Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo: kiril106 ...
Economics 17 Apr 10:
... If we fail to start taking these steps now, our current leaders will have earned the opprobrium that future generations will heap upon them. This article originally appeared at the Newsweek. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by Seema K K ...
Economics 11 Apr 10:
... ” As the population expands to 400 million people, Americans will need to tap that spirit more than ever. This article originally appeared at the Omaha World Herald. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by: Sacred Destinations ...
Economics 05 Apr 10:
... If he fails to communicate that message adequately, the voters, however leery of the Republicans, will rebuke him. This article originally appeared at Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. ...
The Enterprise Blog 31 Mar 10:
... Families’ traditional preference for male babies remains strong. Sex-selection abortions are illegal, but the ratio of boys to girls in China has become skewed because of the abortions of female fetuses and the abandonment and killing of newborn girls. That’s from the WSJ. In Joel Kotkin’s terrific new book about America’s next hundred million residents, which I reviewed in the Journal (”The More, The Better“), he argues that China’s rise is threatened by the fact that, due to its one-child and other policies, China will become a rapidly aging society just ten years from now. ...
Economics 24 Mar 10:
... ” The mid-21st-century United States can reflect that description — and aspiration — to our substantial long-term benefit. This article first appeared at Politico. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo by SEIU International ...
Economics 16 Mar 10:
... Our experiment with creating what Walt Whitman in 1855 described as 'the race of races' will represent one of the great accomplishments of mid-21st century America. This article originally appeared at AOLNews. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo: chrisjfry ...
The Big Picture 16 Mar 10:
... That’s optimism! I lived through the 1970s — an era of sky high interest rates, ugly cars, polyester and disco — so I now how bad life can get in the USA. My motto: Hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst. With that thought in mind, let’s have a look at a long term chart that is actually encouraging. It comes from the book “The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050. ” Many people are surprised to learn that America “boasts the highest fertility rate: 50 percent higher than Russia, Germany or Japan, and well above that of China, Italy, Singapore, Korea and virtually all of eastern Europe. ” In terms of economic development, this demographic factor provides a long term advantage — think of the financial bulge of the Baby Boomers (while ignoring everything else they screwed up). ...
Economics 08 Mar 10:
... ' If in his old age Brown adopts the Italian writer's credo of tactical flexibility, reason and tolerance, the Golden State may yet revive itself, and with it restore the legacy of its most storied political family. This article originally appeared at Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. Photo: Troy Holden ...
EconLog 07 Mar 10:
... The Social Security tax fade-out is next. Second Reform: Mild means-testing at the top. Third Reform: Tax hikes. They won't like it, but American voters, young and old, will indeed sit on their hands as these reforms pass, one by one. Depressing? Kind of, but at least the U. S. has relatively good demographics. * If you want to check my work, regress NATSOC on AGE and any other controls you like. Don't forget that low answers on NATSOC mean greater support for spending. ...
Economics 22 Feb 10:
... The rest of country may not follow all their strictures, but our would-be Ecotopians could produce some interesting and even usable ideas. This article originally appeared at Forbes. com. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography. com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010. ...